Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-29 4.121429 4.567401 5.103900 5.819025 6.787768 8.130632 10.319731
2025-01-05 3.459753 3.954852 4.596762 5.543986 7.033522 9.638283 16.262709
2025-01-12 3.065902 3.558296 4.221398 5.255848 7.037860 10.735449 26.392911
2025-01-19 2.830122 3.323419 4.007916 5.126020 7.216040 12.406746 81.989722
2025-01-26 2.731144 3.255443 4.011820 5.327616 8.108049 17.829681 NaN
2025-02-02 2.680085 3.244377 4.092798 5.677621 9.597894 37.584817 NaN
2025-02-09 2.576896 3.144796 4.017675 5.714751 10.352519 107.461769 NaN
2025-02-16 2.495102 3.068373 3.968351 5.789246 11.339793 NaN NaN
2025-02-23 2.368757 2.914823 3.773587 5.516926 10.882892 NaN NaN
2025-03-02 2.303094 2.849464 3.721883 5.546311 11.691296 NaN NaN
2025-03-09 2.237302 2.779214 3.654398 5.526632 12.319700 NaN NaN
2025-03-16 2.158301 2.683850 3.535101 5.366987 12.150389 NaN NaN
2025-03-23 2.128675 2.666793 3.557164 5.559747 14.305931 NaN NaN
2025-03-30 2.043994 2.558306 3.406997 5.304998 13.407662 NaN NaN
2025-04-06 1.963622 2.453741 3.258763 5.041679 12.370475 NaN NaN
2025-04-13 1.907093 2.385010 3.171793 4.922696 12.254227 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 1.892713 2.382477 3.204067 5.107295 14.543666 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 1.892566 2.402507 3.279397 5.426150 19.651722 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 1.861528 2.370301 3.253107 5.459853 22.201063 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 1.835693 2.345439 3.239038 5.527402 26.395161 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 1.781487 2.271508 3.125269 5.280016 22.796731 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 1.756048 2.244724 3.102583 5.306771 25.984797 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 1.727902 2.212350 3.066963 5.288855 28.491875 NaN NaN